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Finance & Investment Math

Where this is used

Compound interest, present value, and the trade-off between risk and return are the three ideas that let you run your own numbers: how much to put away each month, what a mortgage really costs you over thirty years, how long your savings will last once you stop earning. A bank or a broker will always have an answer for you. Being able to check that answer yourself is how you protect what you have. Investing stops being a feeling and starts being arithmetic.

Start gently

Compound interest is growth where the interest itself earns interest. It is an exponential function, and the longer you give it, the harder it works.

Key points

Compound Interest: Why Money Grows the Way It Does

Put an amount P to work at an annual rate r, and after n years you have A. What makes compound interest different is that the interest earns interest too — and the gap between that and simple interest widens dramatically the longer you leave it alone. Tax-advantaged retirement accounts exist for exactly this reason: keep the tax off the gains and the compounding runs at full strength.

Present Value and the Discount Rate

Money you get later is worth less than money you have now — inflation eats into it, and you gave up whatever else you could have done with it in the meantime. To find what a future amount FV, arriving n years from now, is worth today, you discount it at rate r. Every investment decision, every company valuation, every comparison between two loan offers comes back to this one idea.

Expected Return: The Average Outcome of an Investment

Sketch out a few scenarios — a strong economy, a normal one, a downturn — give each a probability and a return, and the weighted average is your expected return. It's the starting point for any estimate of what a stock might do. On its own it says nothing about how bumpy the ride is; pair it with the standard deviation and you can compare investments on a risk-adjusted basis.

The Risk-Return Trade-off

As a rule, the investments that pay more also swing more — a higher return comes with a bigger standard deviation. Stocks beat bonds on return and lose to them on stability. What portfolio theory adds is that you don't have to accept that trade one-for-one: hold several assets together and you can keep the same expected return while lowering the risk. The less two assets move in step with each other — the lower their correlation — the more you gain from holding both.

The Rule of 72: Compound Interest in Your Head

A shortcut for how long money takes to double. At 3% a year, 72 ÷ 3 = 24 years. At 6%, 72 ÷ 6 = 12 years. It isn't exact, but it's close enough and fast enough that you can sanity-check a salesperson's projection while they're still talking.

See it drawn

Investing ¥1,000,000 at 5% a year (values in units of ¥10,000)
0200400600800 (¥10k)100Year 0128Year 5163Year 10265Year 20432Year 30704Year 40

Simple interest would reach ¥3.0M in 40 years; compounding reaches ¥7.04M. What creates the gap is time.

Jobs that use this

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