#conjugate-prior

1 articles

01 ·Probability & Statistics·★ MEMBER·11 min read Thinking Bayesian — A Working Feel for Priors, Likelihoods, and Posteriors Bayesian updating is the act of feeding yesterday's posterior back in as today's prior. With a conjugate prior the whole update collapses into adding pseudo-counts, and an A/B test becomes two numbers: the probability of winning and the expected loss. From zero background to the traps in stopping rules and prior choice.